IB ESS HL Topic 6 — Atmosphere & Climate Change Paper 1 & 2 Case study ~11 min read

The Montreal Protocol and Ozone Recovery

Environmental science can feel like a list of problems that never get solved. This page is the exception. A global threat was identified, the world agreed to act, the chemicals were phased out, and the layer began to recover. It is the strongest evidence available that international cooperation can work — which is exactly why examiners like it so much.

📚 What you need to know

What UNEP did

UNEP’s contribution came in two parts. First, information: through research and by sharing what was found, it made governments, industries and the public aware that the ozone layer was being rapidly depleted, what was causing it, and what the environmental and health consequences would be. Second, agreement: it was actively involved in creating the international agreements that reduced ODS use. Awareness alone would have achieved nothing without a treaty; a treaty would have been unsignable without the awareness.

What happened to emissions

THE CURVE THAT PROVES IT WORKED Global emissions of ozone-depleting substances, schematic thousand tonnes per year 400 800 1200 1600 1961 1980 2000 2014 natural sources only 1987: Montreal Protocol and then it just kept falling Roughly 1.5 million tonnes in 1987, about 400,000 by 2010. Very few environmental graphs turn a corner like this one.
Drawn from the published pattern rather than exact annual figures. The shape is the point: a long rise, a sharp peak within a couple of years of the treaty, then a sustained decline that has continued for three decades.

The protocol itself

Phased reductions are the design detail worth understanding. An immediate ban would have been fought by every industry that depended on these chemicals. A phased schedule turned the question from “will you accept a ban” into “how quickly can you switch”, which is a far easier negotiation and gave manufacturers a commercial reason to invent replacements.

What it bought us

THREE FUTURES THAT WERE ON THE TABLE Schematic projection of UV-related harm, relative index extra UV-related harm (index) 25 50 75 100 2000 2020 2040 2060 if nothing had been done Montreal alone with the later amendments too The gap between the red and green lines is what the treaty bought. Strengthening an existing treaty mattered as much as signing it in the first place.
Schematic, showing the shape of published projections rather than specific case numbers. The lesson is that the amendments were not a formality — a treaty that had been signed once and left alone would have delivered far less.

Why this one succeeded

It is worth asking directly why the ozone treaty worked when climate agreements have struggled, because the comparison is a strong evaluation point in almost any question about international cooperation.

FeatureOzone: the Montreal ProtocolClimate: the Paris Agreement
Number of substancesA small group of specific chemicals, made by a limited number of companiesEmissions from energy, transport, farming and industry — effectively the whole economy
Alternatives availableSubstitutes existed or could be developed relatively quicklyReplacing fossil fuels means rebuilding entire energy systems
Cost of complianceModerate, and industry could profit from selling the replacementsVery large, spread unevenly across countries and sectors
Nature of the harmDirect, visible and personal — skin cancer and cataractsDiffuse, delayed and shared, which weakens the sense of urgency
Legal forceBinding phase-out schedules with monitoring and enforcementSelf-set national targets with review but no enforcement
Use this table carefully rather than as a criticism of climate policy. The honest reading is that Montreal was an easier problem: fewer chemicals, cheaper substitutes, clearer personal risk. That does not make the achievement small — it took real diplomacy — but it does mean you should not write “the world just needs to copy Montreal for climate change”. The most rewarded answers say what is transferable: binding targets, phased schedules, regular strengthening, and support for developing countries to comply.

Enforcement and the illegal market

An illegal market in ozone-depleting substances remains a real challenge to the effectiveness of ozone protection. Where a chemical is banned but still cheap and useful, smuggling follows. UNEP recognises the need for consistent monitoring and enforcement, and works with national authorities, customs agencies and other stakeholders to stop illegal trade and ensure compliance with international regulations.

The planetary boundary

Stratospheric ozone depletion is one of the nine planetary boundaries — thresholds which, if crossed, lead to significant environmental change. Action taken in response to the Montreal Protocol prevented this boundary being crossed, and the protocol is generally regarded as the most successful example yet of international cooperation resolving a major environmental problem.

The evidence comes from data. Measurements show a decrease in the size of ozone holes over time, and continuous monitoring indicates that recovery is underway. Recovery is slow, because CFC molecules already released persist in the atmosphere for decades, but the direction of travel is clear.

WORKED EXAMPLE

Explain the role of UNEP in protecting the stratospheric ozone layer. [3]

Point 1 — raising awareness UNEP researched and shared information, educating governments, industries and the public that the layer was being rapidly depleted and why it mattered. Point 2 — creating agreement It was directly involved in developing international agreements to reduce ODS use, and the Montreal Protocol of 1987 was initiated under its guidance. Point 3 — monitoring and enforcement It continues to work with national authorities and customs agencies to tackle the illegal trade in ODSs and ensure compliance. 3 / 3 Awareness, agreement, enforcement. Three verbs, three marks.
WORKED EXAMPLE

Evaluate the success of the Montreal Protocol. [6]

Point 1 — participation It grew from 24 signatories to 197 countries, making it one of the most widely adopted environmental treaties ever agreed. Point 2 — measurable outcome ODS emissions fell from around 1.5 million tonnes in 1987 to roughly 400,000 tonnes by 2010. Point 3 — environmental result Monitoring shows ozone holes shrinking and recovery underway, and the planetary boundary for ozone depletion was not crossed. Point 4 — why the design worked Binding but phased reduction schedules let industry adapt and develop alternatives, and the treaty was strengthened over time, as at Copenhagen in 1992. Point 5 — limitation An illegal market in ODSs persists, recovery is slow because CFCs remain in the atmosphere for decades, and the Antarctic hole still forms each spring. Point 6 — judgement On balance it is a clear success, though partly because the problem was more tractable than climate change: fewer substances, cheaper substitutes and a directly visible risk to human health. 6 / 6 Point 5 stops this being an uncritical answer and point 6 gives the judgement an evaluate question demands.

💡 Exam tip

⚠️ Common mix-up

Up next: How Ozone Is Destroyed — the higher level material starts here, with the catalytic chemistry that lets one chlorine atom destroy thousands of ozone molecules.

Want this explained one-to-one?

Book a free session with an experienced IB ESS tutor and get your trickiest topics made simple.

Book a Free Session →