IB Maths AI HL Probability Paper 1 & 2 ~7 min read

Venn Diagrams

A Venn diagram turns a probability problem into a picture. A rectangle is the sample space U; each event is a circle; overlaps show outcomes shared between events. Once it’s filled in, you can read off (overlap), (everything in the circles), (outside) and even conditional probabilities at a glance. The golden rule for filling one in: start in the centre with the intersection and work outwards.

📘 What you need to know

Reading the regions

Every Venn question is really about which region you’re being asked for. Learn the four core ones.

the four key regions
A B A ∩ B A B A ∪ B A B A′ (outside A) A B A ∩ B′ (A only)
∩ = overlap only; ∪ = both circles; ′ = outside; AB′ = the part of A that’s not in B (“A only”).
Frequencies or probabilities? If the numbers are counts, they add to the total n(U). If they’re probabilities, they add to 1. Check which before you start.

Filling one in: centre out

The reliable method: get the overlap first, then fill each circle so the parts add up correctly.

🧭 Recipe — completing a Venn diagram

  1. Put the intersection in first (AB) — the centre.
  2. Fill the rest of each circle: “A only” = n(A) − overlap; “B only” = n(B) − overlap.
  3. Fill the outside (A′ ∩ B′) — the “neither” region.
  4. Check it sums to the total (or to 1 for probabilities).

🤔 Why subtract the overlap when filling each circle?

The number n(A) counts everyone in A — including those also in B. If you wrote n(A) in the “A only” part, you’d double-count the overlap. So the part of A outside B is n(A) − n(AB). That’s why the intersection goes in first — everything else is measured relative to it.

🧠 Memory aid — “unknown region? use algebra”

If you can’t fill a region directly, call it x. Then form an equation from a known fact: all regions add to the total (or to 1), or P(AB) = P(A)P(B) if told independent. Solve for x.

Worked examples

WE 1

Fill in a Venn diagram with algebra

40 people are asked about sugar (S) and milk (M) in coffee: 21 have sugar, 25 have milk, 7 have neither. Find the number who have both.

let both = x; fill centre out sugar only = 21 − x, milk only = 25 − x, neither = 7. everything sums to 40 (21 − x) + x + (25 − x) + 7 = 40 53 − x = 40 x = 13 have both use the total to form an equation for the unknown overlap.
U S M 8 13 12 7
Sugar only 8, both 13, milk only 12, neither 7 — total 40 ✓
WE 2

Read off a region

Using the completed diagram, find P(has sugar but not milk).

“sugar but not milk” = S ∩ M′ (sugar only) = 8 people out of 40 P(S ∩ M′) = 8/40 = 1/5 remember to write it as a fraction of the total.
WE 3

Conditional from a Venn diagram

Given a person who has sugar, find the probability they have milk.

restrict to the S circle (the given) total with sugar = 8 + 13 = 21 of those, how many have milk? the overlap = 13 P(M|S) = 13/21 denominator = whole S circle; numerator = overlap.
WE 4

Find a union

Using the same diagram, find P(has sugar or milk).

S ∪ M = everything in the circles = 8 + 13 + 12 = 33 P(S ∪ M) = 33/40 or 1 − 7/40 (the 7 outside) = 33/40.
WE 5

Test independence from a Venn diagram

For events with P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.4, and overlap P(AB) = 0.2 (read from a probability Venn diagram), are A and B independent?

independence can’t be seen — test it P(A)P(B) = 0.5 × 0.4 = 0.2 P(A ∩ B) = 0.2 ✓ matches yes — independent a Venn diagram shows exclusivity instantly, but never independence.

💡 Top tips

⚠ Common mistakes

Next up — Tree Diagrams. Venn diagrams are great for “and/or/not” at a single stage; tree diagrams handle sequences of events. You’ll multiply along branches for intersections, add across outcomes for unions, and handle “with/without replacement” — the natural tool for conditional, multi-stage problems.

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