IB ESS HL Topic 6 — Atmosphere & Climate Change Paper 1 & 2 HL only ~10 min read

Who Caused It and Who Suffers

Carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for a very long time, so today’s warming was caused by emissions released across two centuries, mostly by a small number of countries. The countries facing the worst consequences are largely not those countries. That mismatch is the whole of climate justice.

📚 What you need to know

Three ways to count responsibility

Ask “which country is responsible for climate change” and you will get different answers depending on how you count. All three are legitimate, which is exactly why the politics is so difficult.

THE ANSWER DEPENDS ON HOW YOU MEASURE IT Approximate, rounded figures used to show the pattern, not exact values SHARE OF ALL CO2 EVER EMITTED (%) EMISSIONS PER PERSON (tonnes) 24 17 15 4 3 14 8 6 4.7 2 USA EU China India Africa USA China EU world India cumulative, since the Industrial Revolution recent annual average per person India has a very large total and a very small figure per person. Whichever measure a country picks tends to be the one that flatters it.
Both charts are true at once. A country with a large population can dominate the total emissions table while sitting below the world average per person — and that is precisely the argument used in international negotiations.
If an exam gives you an emissions graph, check the axis label first. “Total” and “per capita” produce almost opposite rankings, and reading the wrong one will send your whole answer off course.

Vulnerability: who actually gets hurt

Vulnerability describes how badly a country or region is affected by impacts such as rising seas, extreme weather and threats to food security. Two factors decide it.

RESPONSIBILITY AND VULNERABILITY DO NOT MATCH The people facing the sharpest impacts did least to cause them vulnerability to climate impacts LOW RESPONSIBILITY HIGH VULNERABILITY Maldives, Kiribati, Bangladesh HIGH RESPONSIBILITY HIGH VULNERABILITY exposed coastal cities LOW RESPONSIBILITY LOWER VULNERABILITY some inland low-income states HIGH RESPONSIBILITY LOWER VULNERABILITY wealthy industrialised states high low low responsibility for past and present emissions high The red box is the climate justice problem in one square. Least responsible, least able to adapt, most exposed to the impacts.
Kiribati and the Maldives have contributed a negligible share of global emissions and face the loss of their territory to sea-level rise. No amount of action by them alone would change their situation.

Climate justice and equity

Climate justice is the ethical side of the question: given that the harm is unevenly distributed and the responsibility is unevenly distributed, who should pay to fix it? The usual argument runs that developed countries have both the greater historical responsibility and the greater economic resources, while developing countries are more vulnerable and contributed far less to the problem.

Equity is the principle that the costs and benefits of mitigation and adaptation should be shared fairly. Fairly does not mean equally — an equal split would ignore the fact that some nations built their wealth on the emissions that caused the problem. This is why many argue that wealthier nations should provide financial climate reparations, funding adaptation in countries that are dealing with impacts they did not cause.

The counter-argument matters too. Current emitters point out that warming responds to what is emitted from now on, not only to the past, and that any effective agreement has to include today’s largest emitters regardless of history. A good “evaluate” answer gives both sides.
MeasureWhat it showsWho it puts at the topThe argument it supports
Current annual emissionsHow much is being released right nowLarge industrialised and industrialising economiesToday’s biggest emitters must lead the cuts
Historical cumulative emissionsEverything added since the Industrial RevolutionThe USA and the European UnionEarly industrialisers caused most of the warming already locked in
Emissions per personNational total divided by populationWealthy, high-consumption nationsFair shares should be counted per person, not per country
VulnerabilityExposure to impacts and ability to copeSmall island states and low-income coastal nationsSupport should flow to those least able to adapt
WORKED EXAMPLE

Explain why the countries least responsible for climate change are often the most vulnerable to it. [4]

Point 1 — low responsibility Many low-income countries have small industrial sectors and low emissions per person, so their contribution to cumulative global emissions is very small. Point 2 — geographical exposure Several are low-lying, coastal or in tropical and arid zones, so they face sea-level rise, storms and drought most directly. Point 3 — limited economic capacity They lack the resources for flood defences, warning systems and rebuilding, so the same hazard causes far greater damage. Point 4 — named example Small island states such as the Maldives and Kiribati risk becoming uninhabitable despite contributing almost nothing to global emissions. 4 / 4 Two reasons for vulnerability, one for low responsibility, one example. Clean four marks.
WORKED EXAMPLE

Evaluate the claim that developed countries should pay for climate adaptation in developing countries. [6]

Supporting argument 1 Developed nations hold the largest share of cumulative emissions, so most of the warming already in the system is attributable to them. Supporting argument 2 They also have the greatest economic capacity, and their per capita emissions remain high. Supporting argument 3 Vulnerable nations face costs they did not cause and often cannot meet, so equity requires transferring some of that cost. Counter-argument 1 Future warming depends on emissions from now on, so agreements that exclude today’s largest emitters will not work. Counter-argument 2 Assigning historical blame is complicated by changing borders, unclear early records and the fact that past emitters did not know the consequences. Judgement On balance, historical responsibility and economic capacity make a strong case for developed nations funding adaptation, but it must sit alongside emission cuts by all major emitters rather than replace them. 6 / 6 Six marks needs both sides and a stated conclusion. Never leave an evaluate question hanging.

💡 Exam tip

⚠️ Common mix-up

Up next: Climate Change Mitigation & Adaptation — having established the causes, impacts and responsibility, sub-topic 6.3 moves on to what can actually be done about it.

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