IB ESS HL Topic 6 — Atmosphere & Climate Change Paper 1 & 2 Treaties & targets ~11 min read

Global Agreements and Decarbonisation

The atmosphere does not check passports. A tonne of carbon dioxide released in one country warms every country, which means no government can solve this on its own no matter how good its policies are. That single fact explains why the story of climate action is a story of treaties — and why those treaties are so hard to agree.

📚 What you need to know

Why one country cannot fix it alone

Imagine a country that decides to cut its emissions to zero tomorrow. It pays the entire cost of that change. The benefit — a slightly cooler planet — is spread across all 190-plus countries, most of which paid nothing. Meanwhile the countries that carried on burning coal still warm the atmosphere that the first country is trying to protect. Acting alone is expensive and barely works.

This is why international cooperation is not just nice to have. It is the only mechanism that can work. But cooperation runs into state sovereignty: the principle that each country has the right to govern itself without external interference. A binding emissions target means accepting rules written partly by other people, and governments guard that power closely. Every climate treaty is a compromise between what the science needs and how much sovereignty countries are willing to trade away.

THE TREATIES YOU NEED TO NAME Evenly spaced for clarity, not drawn to scale 1987 Montreal Protocol ozone, not climate 1997 Kyoto Protocol binding targets 2015 Paris Agreement the 1.5 C goal 2023 COP28 Dubai transition away 1992 UNFCCC, Rio the framework 2012 Doha Amendment extended Kyoto 2021 Glasgow Pact coal and methane Kyoto forced a few countries. Paris persuaded nearly all of them. That trade between strictness and participation is the key idea here.
Montreal is on the timeline because examiners like it as a contrast: it dealt with ozone-depleting substances, it worked, and it shows what a well-designed treaty can achieve.
If you learn nothing else about these treaties, learn this contrast. Kyoto set legally binding targets but only for developed countries, and several large emitters stayed outside it. Paris asks every country to set its own target, which is weaker on paper but got almost everyone signed up. Strict rules with few members, or loose rules with everyone — that tension is worth a mark in almost any evaluation question.

The treaties one by one

AgreementYearWhat it actually did
Montreal Protocol1987Phased out CFCs to protect the ozone layer; widely treated as the model of a treaty that worked
UNFCCC1992Agreed at the Rio Earth Summit; set up the framework and the annual meetings, but no targets of its own
Kyoto Protocol1997First treaty with legally binding emission cuts, required only of developed countries
Doha Amendment2012Extended Kyoto to 2013–2020 with new targets and more support for adaptation in developing countries
Paris Agreement2015Well below 2°C, aiming for 1.5°C; every country submits an NDC, reviewed and strengthened every five years
Kigali Amendment2016Added HFCs to the Montreal Protocol, cutting them 85% by 2047 — a climate fix bolted onto an ozone treaty
Glasgow Pact2021Agreed to reduce coal use and methane emissions, and pledged adaptation funding for developing nations
COP28, Dubai2023First explicit call to transition away from fossil fuels; tripling renewables by 2030; Loss and Damage Fund formalised
Why HFCs ended up in an ozone treaty. CFCs were replaced by HFCs because HFCs do not damage ozone. Then it turned out HFCs are extremely powerful greenhouse gases. Rather than start a new treaty, countries amended the one that already worked. Kigali could prevent up to 0.5°C of warming on its own.

How countries are made to cooperate

There is no world government to enforce climate policy, so cooperation relies on three softer tools. Negotiations are where countries argue out shared goals, usually at the annual COP meetings. Protocols and conventions turn those goals into formal written commitments. Sanctions add pressure, and the one to know is the cross-border carbon tax.

A cross-border carbon tax is a charge on imported goods based on the emissions produced while making them. If steel made in a country with weak climate rules is taxed when it enters a country with strong ones, the price advantage of polluting disappears. This tackles carbon leakage, which is what happens when a country’s emissions appear to fall simply because its dirty industries relocated somewhere with looser rules. The emissions did not go away; they just moved off that country’s balance sheet.

Decarbonisation and net zero

Decarbonisation means reducing or ending the use of fossil fuels — coal, oil and natural gas — and replacing them with renewable sources such as solar, wind, hydro and geothermal. Carbon neutrality, usually called net zero, is the point where the carbon dioxide a country releases is balanced by an equal amount removed from the atmosphere.

NET ZERO IS A BALANCE, NOT A ZERO Cut what you can, then remove what is left EMISSIONS TODAY use less energy renewable electricity electrification farming and industry residual cut most of it what is left forests, soils and CCS = NET ZERO The last slice is the hardest and most expensive.
Cement, steel, aviation and some farming emissions are extremely hard to remove entirely, which is why net zero targets rely on carbon sinks and capture technology to cancel out that final slice.

The four routes to decarbonising

Targets to quote. The UK and the EU aim for net zero by 2050, Germany by 2045 and China by 2060. These dates form part of each country’s NDC under the Paris Agreement, so they are promises made internationally, not just domestic policy.

Two examples worth memorising

The EU Green Deal

The European Union aims to be the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. Three of its policies are worth naming. The carbon border adjustment mechanism taxes imports according to their emissions, which prevents carbon leakage and stops EU industries being undercut by competitors with weaker rules. Renewable energy expansion sets targets for the share of renewables in the energy mix. Energy efficiency measures push efficient technology across every sector.

Norway

Norway generates close to all of its electricity from renewable sources, mostly hydropower, and has pushed electric vehicles hard through tax exemptions, toll reductions and free parking. It set out to end sales of new fossil fuel cars by 2025. There is a useful complication here: Norway is also a major oil and gas exporter, so its domestic emissions look excellent while the fuel it sells is burned elsewhere. Mentioning that tension shows real understanding.

WORKED EXAMPLE

Explain why international cooperation is necessary to address climate change. [4]

Point 1 — the atmosphere is shared Greenhouse gases mix throughout the atmosphere, so emissions released anywhere affect the climate everywhere. Point 2 — acting alone does not work One country cutting emissions pays the full cost but gains only a small share of the benefit, so unilateral action has limited effect. Point 3 — the leakage problem Without shared rules, high-emitting industries relocate to countries with weaker regulations, so global emissions do not fall. Point 4 — named mechanism Treaties such as the Paris Agreement create shared targets and review processes that hold countries accountable to each other. 4 / 4 Naming a treaty in the final point turns a general answer into a specific one.
WORKED EXAMPLE

Distinguish between decarbonisation and carbon neutrality. [2]

Mark 1 — decarbonisation Decarbonisation is the process of reducing or ending fossil fuel use and switching to low-carbon energy sources. Mark 2 — carbon neutrality Carbon neutrality is the end state where remaining emissions are balanced by an equal quantity of carbon dioxide removal, giving net zero. 2 / 2 One is the journey, the other is the destination. Say that and the mark is safe.

💡 Exam tip

⚠️ Common mix-up

Up next: Mitigating Climate Change — moving from what countries have promised to the actual strategies that cut emissions at source and pull carbon back out of the air.

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