IB Biology SL Topic 3 — Populations & Communities Paper 1 & 2 Practical skill ~11 min read

Estimating Population Size

Nobody counts every daisy in a field or every beetle in a wood. Instead you count a small part carefully and scale it up. This page covers the two big methods — quadrats for things that stay still, and mark-release-recapture for things that run away.

📘 What you need to know

Why bother sampling?

If the area is tiny, or the organism is enormous, you can just count everything. Twelve oak trees in a small wood? Count them. But a grassland full of clover, or a rocky shore full of limpets, is impossible to count individually. You would never finish, and the ones you counted first would have moved or died by the end.

So you count a few small squares, work out an average, and multiply up to the size of the whole habitat. The estimate is never perfect, but a good sampling design gets it close.

Random or systematic?

These two words describe where you put your samples, and they are chosen for different reasons.

Where you put the samples Each cross marks one quadrat position RANDOM SAMPLING SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING Random removes bias; systematic shows change across a habitat Choose random when the habitat looks fairly uniform all the way across.
Randomly placed does not mean carelessly placed. You still generate co-ordinates properly — throwing a quadrat over your shoulder is not random.
MethodHow sites are chosenUse it when
RandomLay a grid over the area, generate random number co-ordinates, sample the squares they land onThe habitat is reasonably uniform and you want an unbiased estimate
SystematicSample at fixed intervals, usually along a line called a transectYou want to see how species change away from a feature such as a river or the sea
Bias is the reason random sampling exists. If you pick spots that “look interesting”, you drift towards the colourful, busy patches and your estimate comes out far too high. Random co-ordinates take that choice out of your hands.

Quadrats: what you actually record

A frame quadrat is a square frame you place on the ground. Small ones (1 m2) suit grasses and limpets; huge ones (400 m2, usually marked with string) suit trees. What you record inside it depends on the question you are asking.

Type of dataWhat you write downGood for
Presence or absenceIs the species there, yes or noDistribution maps and chi-squared tests
Species frequencyHow many individuals are inside the frameCountable organisms such as daisies or limpets
Percentage coverWhat percentage of the frame the species coversGrasses, mosses and seaweeds you cannot count
ACFOR abundanceAbundant, common, frequent, occasional, rare or noneQuick surveys where exact numbers are not needed
Percentage cover made easy. Divide the quadrat into 100 small squares with string. Count a square if the species covers more than half of it. If 37 squares count, the cover is 37 %. It is quick, it is repeatable, and two people usually get answers within a few per cent of each other.

Sampling error — and why it is unavoidable

When you scale a sample up, you are assuming the organisms are spread evenly across the whole site. They almost never are. Soil depth, shade, water and competition all push species into patches.

So one of two things happens. Your quadrats miss a crowded patch, and your estimate comes out too low. Or they miss an empty patch, and your estimate comes out too high. That gap between your estimate and the real number is sampling error.

You cannot delete it. You can shrink it, by taking more samples and by choosing the right sampling method for the habitat. That is also why scientists publish their exact methods — so other people can judge how much error is likely.

Mean and standard deviation

Take ten quadrat counts and you get ten numbers. The mean tells you the average. The standard deviation tells you how tightly the numbers cluster around that mean — and that is really a statement about how evenly the species is spread.

Same mean, different spread Both curves are centred on the same average count mean small standard deviation counts sit close to the mean large standard deviation counts are spread widelySpread tells you about distribution, not just about maths A small standard deviation suggests the species is spread evenly across the site.
Two surveys can report exactly the same mean number per quadrat while describing completely different habitats.
WORKED EXAMPLE

Mean and spread from quadrat counts

A student records the number of daisy plants in five 1 m2 quadrats: 12, 15, 9, 14, 10. Calculate the mean, calculate the standard deviation, and comment on what the spread suggests about the distribution of the daisies.

Step 1: mean (12 + 15 + 9 + 14 + 10) ÷ 5 = 60 ÷ 5 = 12 Step 2: how far is each value from 12? 0, +3, −3, +2, −2 Step 3: square them and add 0 + 9 + 9 + 4 + 4 = 26 Step 4: divide by (n − 1), then square root 26 ÷ 4 = 6.5   √6.5 = 2.5 mean = 12 plants m⁻², s = 2.5 2.5 is small next to a mean of 12, so the daisies are fairly evenly spread

Organisms that run away: mark–release–recapture

Quadrats are useless for beetles, fish or woodlice — they simply leave. Instead you use the marked ones as a clue.

The logic is beautifully simple. Mark 100 animals and let them mix back in. If the population is small, marked animals will be a big fraction of your next catch. If the population is huge, you will barely see any marked ones again.

Capture — mark — release — recapture Four steps, three numbers, one estimate 1 2 3 4CATCH AND MARK Catch a big sample. Count them: M. Mark them safely.RELEASE Put them back. Wait, so they mix back in fully.RECAPTURE Catch a second big sample later. Total caught: n.COUNT THE MARKS How many of the second sample are already marked: R. population estimate = M × n ÷ R Few marks returned means a large population M and n are the two sample sizes; R is how many of the second sample were marked.
The waiting time in step 2 matters. Recapture too soon and the marked animals are still bunched near where you released them.
The Lincoln index estimated population size = (M × n) ÷ R

M = number marked in the first sample. n = total number caught in the second sample. R = number of marked individuals recaptured in the second sample. Some textbooks write the same equation as M × N ÷ R — the letters change, the maths does not.

WORKED EXAMPLE

Estimating a beetle population

Students caught 120 ground beetles, marked a small dot of non-toxic paint on each wing case and released them. Four days later they caught 150 beetles, of which 40 carried a paint mark. Estimate the size of the beetle population.

Step 1: label the three numbers M = 120 marked, n = 150 caught second time, R = 40 marked ones recaptured Step 2: put them in the Lincoln index estimate = (120 × 150) ÷ 40 = 18 000 ÷ 40 about 450 beetles sense check: 40 out of 150 caught were marked, so roughly a quarter of the population carried a mark — and 120 is roughly a quarter of 450

🧩 The assumptions behind the Lincoln index

  1. The marked animals mix back in fully with the rest of the population.
  2. The mark does not change survival. A bright mark that attracts predators would ruin the estimate.
  3. The mark stays on and stays visible for the whole study.
  4. The population size does not change — no big pulse of births or deaths.
  5. No migration in or out of the study area between the two samples.
Questions love asking “suggest why the estimate may be inaccurate”. Pick one assumption and break it, then say which way the estimate goes. If marks rub off, R falls, so the estimate comes out too high.

💡 Exam tip

⚠ Common mix-up

Up next: What Limits Population Size — you can measure a population, so now look at why it stops growing instead of doubling forever.

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