IB Biology SL Topic 3 — Disease & Immunity Paper 1 & 2 Practical skill ~8 min read

Evaluating COVID-19 Data

Two calculations, one common mistake. Percentage difference and percentage change look almost identical, use almost the same numbers, and give completely different answers. This page is about telling them apart in the first five seconds of a question.

📘 What you need to know

Which one does this question want?

Read the question and ask one thing: are the two numbers separated by place or by time?

Two numbers in front of you. Which calculation? the only question you need to ask is what separates them TWO VALUES TO COMPARE check first that they mean the same thing PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE same moment, different places e.g. cases in country A vs B divide by the AVERAGEPERCENTAGE CHANGE same place, different times e.g. March cases vs April cases divide by the ORIGINALThe only difference in the maths is what goes on the bottom of the fraction. Average for a difference, original value for a change. That is the whole thing.
Percentage difference is symmetrical — swap the two countries and you get the same answer. Percentage change is not, because one value is the starting point.

Percentage difference

This compares two values that occur at the same time and that are directly comparable. Neither value is more “original” than the other, so neither one can be the denominator — which is why you divide by the average of the two.

Percentage difference (difference between the two values ÷ average of the two values) × 100
Directly comparable is the phrase to watch. The number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths are two different types of value, so a percentage difference between them means nothing at all. Cases versus cases, deaths versus deaths.
WORKED EXAMPLE

In one week, Region A recorded 24 600 confirmed cases and Region B recorded 3 900. Calculate the percentage difference between them. [3]

Step 1: find the difference 24 600 − 3 900 = 20 700 Step 2: find the average of the two values (24 600 + 3 900) ÷ 2 = 28 500 ÷ 2 = 14 250 Step 3: substitute into the formula (20 700 ÷ 14 250) × 100 = 1.4526… × 100 145 % (3 s.f.) both values are cases, in the same week — that is what makes this a difference
A percentage difference over 100 % looks wrong the first time you see it, but it is perfectly normal. When one value is much larger than the other, the gap between them can easily be bigger than their average.

Percentage change

This compares two values from the same data set at different times — how a figure has changed. Here one value clearly is the starting point, so that one goes on the bottom.

Percentage change (change ÷ original value) × 100
WORKED EXAMPLE

A region recorded 52 400 cases in March and 41 300 cases in April. Calculate the percentage change. [3]

Step 1: find the change 52 400 − 41 300 = 11 100 Step 2: identify the original value March is the earlier month, so 52 400 is the original value. Step 3: substitute into the formula (11 100 ÷ 52 400) × 100 = 0.21183… × 100 21.2 % decrease (3 s.f.) the original value was larger, so this is a decrease — you can also write it as −21.2 %
WORKED EXAMPLE

Recorded deaths rose from 1 240 in one month to 1 612 the next. Calculate the percentage change. [2]

Step 1: find the change 1 612 − 1 240 = 372 Step 2: divide by the original value (372 ÷ 1 240) × 100 = 0.300 × 100 30.0 % increase original value is the earlier figure, 1 240 — using 1 612 gives 23.1 % and no marks
WORKED EXAMPLE

A student calculates the percentage difference between the number of cases and the number of deaths in one country. Explain why this calculation is not valid. [2]

The rule being broken Percentage difference can only be used for values that are directly comparable, meaning they measure the same thing. Why these are not Cases and deaths are two different types of value, so the result would not describe anything meaningful. Not directly comparable, so the calculation has no meaning a valid comparison here would be deaths as a percentage of cases, which is a different calculation

Getting the marks in data questions

🧩 A routine that works under time pressure

  1. Check the two values are directly comparable. If not, stop — the question is asking something else.
  2. Decide: separated by place (difference) or by time (change)?
  3. Write the formula down before substituting. It is often worth a mark by itself.
  4. Show the subtraction as a separate line so the working is visible.
  5. Substitute, calculate, and round to the number of significant figures the question asks for — 3 s.f. if it does not say.
  6. Add the unit (%) and, for a change, the word increase or decrease.
Almost every mark lost on these questions is a working mark, not an arithmetic one. Write the formula, write the subtraction, write the substitution. Even if your calculator lets you down, three of the marks are already safe.

💡 Exam tip

⚠ Common mix-up

That is the end of Disease & Immunity. Go back to Pathogens and work forwards through the unit without your notes — if you can get from a pathogen entering the body all the way to a memory cell and a vaccine, you have this topic.

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