IB Economics SL Topic 3 — Macroeconomics Paper 1 & 2 Core skill ~8 min read

What Shifts Long-Run Aggregate Supply

Shifting AD moves an economy around inside its limits. Shifting long-run aggregate supply moves the limits themselves. This is the difference between a busy year and a genuinely richer country, and it is the only kind of growth that lasts.

📘 What you need to know

The four things that raise potential output

CauseHow it raises capacityExamples
Quantity or quality of the factors of production More land, labour, capital or enterprise, or better versions of them. A more skilled worker produces more per hour with the same equipment. Education and training, immigration policy that raises the labour force, discovering new resources, more machinery
Technological advances New technology improves the quality of capital, so the same inputs produce more output. Better materials, automation, faster computing, improved farming methods
Efficiency improvements Process innovation raises productivity without needing more resources at all. The same factory produces more from the same inputs. Moving from labour intensive to automated production, better logistics, lean working
Changes in institutions The rules and organisations an economy runs on affect how easily resources get used. Better institutions let firms start, borrow and compete. Stronger financial institutions giving firms access to finance, competition policy, secure property rights, reliable courts
Institutions is the one students skip, and it is often the most powerful of the four. A country can have plenty of land, labour and capital and still produce very little if firms cannot get credit, contracts cannot be enforced, or a few protected firms are allowed to block everyone else. Improving that raises output without adding a single new resource.

The classical picture

AN INCREASE IN LONG-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLYBetter or more factors of production move the whole vertical curve rightAVERAGE PRICELEVELReal GDP (Y)LRAS1LRAS2ADAP1AP2YFE1YFE2the economy can now make moreThis is genuine growth in potential output, not just a busier economy.On a PPC diagram this is the whole curve moving outwards.
Aggregate demand has not moved. The economy can simply produce more than it could before, so output rises and the average price level falls.
This is why supply-side policy is so attractive. A demand-side stimulus raises output and pushes prices up. A successful supply-side improvement raises output and pushes prices down. Both goals at once, which no demand-side policy can deliver.

The Keynesian picture

THE SAME IDEA IN THE KEYNESIAN MODELThe vertical section moves right, so full employment output is higherAVERAGE PRICELEVELReal GDP (Y)AS1AS2YFE1YFE2more capacity, so the ceiling liftsWhichever model you use, supply-side improvements raise the ceiling on output.Nothing here says the economy will actually reach that ceiling.
The same improvement in the Keynesian model: the whole curve moves right, so the ceiling on output is now higher.

The logic is identical. Better or more factors of production mean the economy can produce more before it hits full employment, so the vertical section moves from YFE1 to YFE2. The models disagree about how economies behave below full employment, not about what causes capacity to grow.

One honest limitation to keep for evaluation: shifting LRAS right raises the ceiling, but nothing guarantees the economy will reach it. If aggregate demand is weak, a country can have plenty of unused capacity and add more. Supply-side improvement is necessary for long-run growth and not, on its own, sufficient.

SRAS or LRAS? The test

🧩 Deciding which curve moves

  1. Ask: has capacity changed? Can the economy now produce more with everything fully employed?
  2. If yes, it is LRAS. More or better factors, new technology, better efficiency, better institutions.
  3. If no, but costs changed, it is SRAS. Input prices, wages, indirect taxes.
  4. If neither, but somebody is spending differently, it is AD.
  5. Check the timescale in the question. Training a workforce is an LRAS change that takes years, and saying so is worth a mark.
EventCurveWhy
Energy prices fall sharplySRAS rightCosts fall, but no new capacity is created
Net immigration raises the labour forceLRAS rightMore of a factor of production is available
A rise in VATSRAS leftAn extra cost per unit for firms
A major new port opensLRAS rightInfrastructure raises what the economy can produce
A natural disaster destroys factoriesLRAS leftCapital has been lost, so capacity falls
Wage settlements come in highSRAS leftCosts rise with no change in capacity
WORKED EXAMPLE

A government invests heavily in vocational training and new transport infrastructure. Using a diagram, explain the long-run effects on output and the price level. [4]

Step 1: identify the type of change Training raises the quality of labour and infrastructure raises the quality of capital, so both raise potential output. Step 2: the shift LRAS shifts right from LRAS₁ to LRAS₂ Step 3: the new equilibrium with AD unchanged, output rises to a higher Y and the price level falls Higher real GDP and lower inflationary pressure Step 4: a limitation worth adding Both take years to work, and the government spending involved carries an opportunity cost. In the short run the extra spending also raises AD.
WORKED EXAMPLE

Explain why an increase in LRAS does not guarantee that real GDP will rise. [3]

Step 1: what LRAS shows LRAS is potential output: what the economy could produce if all resources were fully employed. Step 2: what actually decides output actual output is set by where AD meets AS, not by LRAS alone Step 3: the consequence If aggregate demand is weak, the economy sits below its potential and simply has more idle capacity than before. Raising the ceiling does not make the economy reach it This is a favourite evaluation point on supply-side policy questions.

💡 Exam tip

⚠️ Common mix-up

Up next: Macroeconomic Equilibrium and Output Gaps, where AD and AS finally meet and you find out where the economy actually settles.

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